This pricing is for a limited time; until the full-site is completed.

If you purchase before the site is completed, your pricing will be grandfathered in. (not indefinitely)

Full-Site Access

10 per Month
  • Investment recommendations for stocks and ETFs.
  • Analysis(charts and commentary) for stocks, ETFs, and other asset classes.
  • Stock and ETF database. More added every day.

Publishing Overview

How much skin do you have in the game?

A question you should ask all who are trying to sell you advice, especially financial advice. All trades will be tracked with a real money portfolio executed through Robinhood.

This account will be used to pay for my kids’ college. The results matter a great deal as to the quality of education they will receive.

Who is this service right for?

People who invest their own money and are serious about building wealth over the long-term.

Who is this service not right for?

People looking to “get rich quick”. Those strategies don’t exist.

If you cannot stomach your portfolio going down 50% or more, you should not be investing in equities at all. Two to three times in your life, your portfolio will go down by at least 50%. View that as an opportunity, not a time to panic.

What will we be buying?

Stocks and ETFs.

How many ideas can I expect?

Zero to four per month. Good investing ideas don’t surface on a regular schedule. We must be willing to sit on our hands most of the time.

What’s a typical holding period?

A year or greater.

What are you trying to accomplish with SAM?

Read this article for my take on the current investment landscape and where I am trying to fit in.


What’s your investment strategy?

To earn above-average returns you have to construct a portfolio that is different than other investors. We are looking for non-consensus ideas. Ideas that investors do not believe in or see as an opportunity.

See diagram below.

The other part of non-consensus is we have to be right. We won't know in advance if we will be right. We must use our judgment and asses the probabilities as best we can.

Most importantly, we must leave our ego at the door and be willing to change our mind as new information becomes available.

To achieve above average returns we must find ideas that are non-consensus AND we have to be right.

How will you evaluate ideas?

We won’t. We will watch other investors. Other investors come up with theories of how the world works and which companies are going to succeed and which will fail.

They enter buy and sell orders based on their theories. Those orders affect asset prices and create opportunities for the skilled investor who has the patience to wait for favorable risk/reward setups.

This quote from Charlie Munger sums up our investment process:

It’s not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it — who look and sift the world for a mispriced bet — that they can occasionally find one.

 

And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time they don’t. It’s just that simple.

We will look for mispriced bets, not the best companies. We will play the man, not the hand, as they say in poker.