We help investors and traders execute trade ideas by showing them what and when to buy, when to sell, and how to manage a portfolio.
Every day we look for investment opportunities. Our goal is to provide subscribers with ideas and research they can execute and profit from.
We express our ideas through stocks and ETFs.
Our goal is to generate ideas that earn a better return than a low-cost ETF such as SPY.
This newsletter costs $97 per year.
Do you offer refunds?
Yes, you are entitled to a full refund within 30 days of purchase.
Why just the yearly plan?
We believe you will have more success as an investor thinking long-term. A short-term payment plan puts you in a short-term mindset.
Your long-term success is our goal.
We want to encourage practices that support that goal.
A yearly payment plan allows us to be patient and wait for good investment opportunities.
Important: We are aiming to be in the top 10% of investment performance. In order to achieve that, there is a chance we will end up in the bottom 10% if our trades don't work out.
Sometimes they won't. That is the tradeoff. Nothing is guaranteed.
In fact, if you can't stomach your portfolio going down 50% or more, you should not be investing in equities at all.
Two to three times in your life, your portfolio will go down by at least 50%.
View that as an opportunity, not a time to panic.
How will you manage risk?
All trades will have a level where we will exit. We are not in the business of holding losing trades.
Our portfolio will hold between 10-20 positions. We recommend limiting a single position to no more than 10% of your portfolio.
If you are a beginner or not experienced in handling drawdowns, bump the amount risked down to 1-5% per position.
One thing you cannot afford as an investor is a catastrophic loss you cannot recover from.
What's your strategy?
We are a top-down investor and look for non-consensus ideas.
What does that mean?
Instead of starting with an individual company(bottom-up), we look at the entire world and try to find opportunities other investors are overlooking.
In order to earn above-average returns, you have to construct a portfolio that is different than other investors.
You have to find ideas that other investors do not believe in or see as an opportunity.
We have to be right. We won't know in advance if we will be right. We must use our judgment and assess the probabilities as best we can.
We must leave our ego at the door and be willing to change our mind as new information becomes available.
To achieve above-average returns, we must find ideas that are non-consensus AND we have to be right. See diagram below.
Ok...So how do you evaluate ideas?
We won't. We watch other investors.
Other investors come up with theories of how the world works and which companies are going to succeed and which will fail.
They enter buy and sell orders based on their theories.
Those orders affect asset prices and create opportunities for the skilled investor who has the patience to wait for favorable risk/reward setups.
This quote from Charlie Munger sums up our investment process:
It’s not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it — who look and sift the world for a mispriced bet — that they can occasionally find one.
And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time they don’t. It’s just that simple.
We look for mispriced bets. We play the man, not the hand, as they say in poker.
What will you invest in?
- Russell 3000 stocks-The largest 3000 publicly held companies in America. These stocks make up 98% of the American public equity market.
- ETFs-These will include index, sector, foreign, and other specialty ETFs.
Past picks and performance
The performance will be updated once per quarter. Members can see the current portfolio anytime by logging in.
Note: The first four trades(GILD, GLD, TWTR, & GWW) trades were taken before I had the Robinhood account set-up. All trades hence have real-money at risk.
Updated February 2018. Next update: July 2018
- Gilead Sciences | GILD | Open date: 07/03/2017 | Gain/loss since open: +14.31%.
- Gold Shares | GLD | Open date: 07/18/2017 | Gain/loss since open: +6.80
- Twitter | TWTR | Open date: 10/30/2017 | Gain/loss since open: +54.27%
- Bed Bath & Beyond | BBBY | Open date: 02/14/2018 | Gain/loss since open: -1.34%
- W W Grainger | GWW | Open date: 09/12/2017 | Closed date: 01/29/2018 | Gain/loss: +65.05%.
Do you have any skin in the game?
A question you should ask all who are selling you advice, especially financial advice.
All trades, outside the first four, have real-money at risk. This account will be used to pay for my children's college. The results will matter a great deal as to the quality of education they will receive.
What you get
In 3 simple steps.
- Download the Robinhood app to your phone or use your existing brokerage app.
- Subscribe to the newsletter.
- After you subscribe, execute the trade ideas or use them as a starting point for your own research.
Wealthfront, Betterment, and Vanguard offer low-cost index products for your retirement account.
I believe a portion of your money should be set aside to take aggressive risks. That is the purpose of this newsletter. To produce trading ideas that will outperform a low-cost index.
I have never worked for a fund or investment bank. I am self-taught. I was mentored by a trader in Chicago.
I started trading during the 2008/09 financial crisis. I believe my results and analysis will speak for themselves over time.
There are no secrets to this business. To be successful, one must exercise good judgment, common sense, discipline, and patience.
I'm not perfect. I will make mistakes, have drawdowns, and sometimes just be wrong.
But I will be transparent and honest about my results.
An investment professional's goal should be to earn and build trust with their clients, and that is my hope, to build trust with you.
5-20 per year.
Good ideas don't surface on a regular schedule. We must be willing to sit on our hands most of the time.
A year or greater.
That is not a hard rule as we have to adapt to changing market conditions but our goal is to hold as long as it makes sense.
Via email. Detailed write-ups will be posted on the website.
Members can reach me by email.
No, if you are a premium subscriber, you will automatically get the free research newsletter unless you unsubscribe.