Newsletter Summary


  • True Alpha is SAM's flagship publication designed to capture trends within a 1-3 year time frame.

  • We express our ideas through stocks and ETFs with specific price targets and stops designed to maximize our upside and limit our downside.

What will you invest in?

  • Large and mid-cap stocks. Companies with $1 billion + market cap.
  • Major ETFs-These will include index, sector, foreign, and other specialty ETFs. 

Past picks and performance

The performance will be updated once per quarter. Members can see the current portfolio anytime by logging in.

Note: The first four trades(GILD, GLD, TWTR, & GWW) trades were taken before I had the Robinhood account set-up. All trades hence have real-money at risk.

Updated February 2018. Next update: July 2018

Open Positions

  1. Gilead Sciences | GILD | Open date: 07/03/2017 | Gain/loss since open: +14.31%.
  2. Gold Shares | GLD | Open date: 07/18/2017 | Gain/loss since open: +6.80
  3. Twitter | TWTR | Open date: 10/30/2017 | Gain/loss since open: +54.27%
  4. Bed Bath & Beyond | BBBY | Open date: 02/14/2018 | Gain/loss since open: -1.34%

Closed Positions

  1. W W Grainger | GWW | Open date: 09/12/2017 | Closed date: 01/29/2018 | Gain/loss: +65.05%.

Fees

This newsletter costs $200/year or $60/quarter. Get two months free with the yearly plan.

Do you offer refunds?

No, but you can turn off auto-renew anytime by logging into your account.


Disclaimer

Important: We are aiming to be in the top 10% of investment performance. In order to achieve that, there is a chance we will end up in the bottom 10% if our trades don't work out.

Guess what...

Sometimes they won't. That is the tradeoff. Nothing is guaranteed.

In fact, if you can't stomach your portfolio going down 50% or more, you should not be investing in equities at all.

Two to three times in your life, your portfolio will go down by at least 50%.

View that as an opportunity, not a time to panic.


How will you manage risk?

All trades will have a level where we will exit. We are not in the business of holding losing trades.

Our portfolio will hold between 10-20 positions. I recommend limiting a single position to no more than 10% of your portfolio.

If you are a beginner or not experienced in handling drawdowns, bump the amount risked down to 1-5% per position.

One thing you cannot afford as an investor is a catastrophic loss you cannot recover from.

What's your strategy?

We look for non-consensus ideas.

What does that mean?

In order to earn above-average returns, you have to construct a portfolio that is different than other investors.

You have to find ideas that other investors do not believe in or see as an opportunity.

In addition,

You have to be right. We won't know in advance if we will be right, we must use our judgment and assess the probabilities as best we can.

Most importantly,

we must leave our ego at the door and be willing to change our mind as new information becomes available.

To summarize:

To achieve above-average returns, we must find ideas that are non-consensus AND we have to be right. See diagram below.

Ok...So how do you evaluate ideas?

We won't. We watch other investors.

Other investors come up with theories of how the world works and which companies are going to succeed and which will fail.

They enter buy and sell orders based on their theories.

Those orders affect asset prices and create opportunities for the skilled investor who has the patience to wait for favorable risk/reward setups.

This quote from Charlie Munger sums up our investment process:

It’s not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it — who look and sift the world for a mispriced bet — that they can occasionally find one.

And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time they don’t. It’s just that simple.

We look for mispriced bets, not the best companies. We play the man, not the hand, as they say in poker.

Important

Our goal is to get on the right side of the order flow.

Meaning, our trades will be based on which stocks and ETFs have the greatest potential to increase in price. This is different than investing in the "best" companies.

Just because a company is "good" or "quality", however you define those terms, doesn't mean it's a good investment at current prices.

Remember, we are looking for non-consensus ideas. That means buying companies other investors don't think are good investments.

When everyone agrees that a company is "great"; often the best time to invest has passed.

Remember, Amazon, Facebook, and Netflix were all non-consenses ideas at one point in time.

Do you have any skin in the game?

A question you should ask all who are selling you advice, especially financial advice.

All trades, outside the first four, have real-money at risk. This account will be used to pay for my children's college. The results will matter a great deal as to the quality of education they will receive.

True Alpha | Yearly

200 per Year
  • Weekly Newsletter.
  • The Chartbook.
  • Trade Alerts for Stocks and ETFs.

or

Subscribe for 60/quarter.

Choose the yearly plan and get two months free!

What does a membership include?

Weekly Newsletter

Published on Sunday afternoon. A summary of the week's research in one place. Members can access the research anytime by logging onto the website.

The Chartbook

Over 1000 annotated charts with buy/sell recommendations(Under construction). These charts will eventually include all Russell 1000 stocks and over 100 ETFs.

Trade Alerts

When SAM's portfolio takes a trade, members will be alerted via email. Detailed write-ups will be posted on the website.

FAQ's

Q: How do I get started with your newsletter?

A: In 3 simple steps.

  1. Download the Robinhood app to your phone or use your existing brokerage app.
  2. Subscribe to the newsletter.
  3. After you subscribe, execute the trade ideas or use them as a starting point for your own research.

Q: Why should I subscribe?

A: Wealthfront, Betterment, and Vanguard offer low-cost index products for your retirement account.

I believe a portion of your money should be set aside to take aggressive risks. That is the purpose of this newsletter. To produce trading ideas that will outperform a low-cost index.

Q: How are you qualified?

A: I have never worked for a fund or investment bank. I am self-taught. I was mentored by a trader in Chicago.

I started trading during the 2008/09 financial crisis. I believe my results and analysis will speak for themselves over time.

There are no secrets to this business. To be successful, one must exercise good judgment, common sense, discipline, and patience.

I'm not perfect. I will make mistakes, have drawdowns, and sometimes just be wrong.

But I will be transparent and honest about my results.

An investment professional's goal should be to earn and build trust with their clients, and that is my hope, to build trust with you.

Q: What’s your risk management philosophy?

A: All trades will have a level where we will exit. We are not in the business of holding losing trades.

Our portfolio will hold between 10-20 positions. I recommend limiting a single position to no more than 10% of your portfolio.

If you are a beginner or not experienced in handling drawdowns, bump the amount risked down to 1-5% per position.

One thing you cannot afford as an investor is a catastrophic loss you cannot recover from.

Q: What will you invest in?

A:

  1. Russell 1000 stocks-These stocks make up 95% of U.S listed equities.
  2. Major ETFs-These will include index, sector, foreign, and other specialty ETFs. 

Q: How many ideas can I expect?

Zero to four per month.

Good ideas don't surface on a regular schedule. We must be willing to sit on our hands most of the time.

Q: What's a typical holding period?

A year or greater.

That is not a hard rule as we have to adapt to changing market conditions but our goal is to hold as long as it makes sense.

Q: How will I receive the trade alerts?

Via email. Detailed write-ups will be posted on the website.

Q: Why the yearly plan is the better option.

A: I believe you will have more success as an investor thinking long-term. A short-term payment plan puts you in a short-term mindset.

Your long-term success is our goal.

We want to encourage practices that support that goal.

However, we understand if you don't want to commit to a full year, that's why the quarterly option is there. You can upgrade to yearly plan anytime.

Q: Do you offer refunds?

No, but you can turn off auto-renew anytime by logging into your account.

Q: What kind of support will you offer?

A: Members can reach me by email. 

True Alpha | Yearly

200 per Year
  • Weekly Newsletter.
  • The Chartbook.
  • Trade Alerts for Stocks and ETFs.

or

Subscribe for 60/quarter.

Choose the yearly plan and get two months free!